Hogan himself said that her swing was the best he had ever seen. -2019 Sentry TOC at Kapalua, Q. Schauffele hit 15 greens in regulation and gained more than two strokes approaching the green on Day 1. Strokes Gained Around the Green: Bermuda . Sean OHair (1.302 sg:wind vs. 0.895 sg:total) Palmer saved his best for last with a three-hole finish that ranges from the 16th hole that is a par 5 at 511 yards, pivoting to a 223-yard par 3 on the 17th hole, and concluding with a par 4 on the 18th with an approach shot over an enormous pond. I dont know what anyone else thinks, but it doesnt really matter as long as I think Im a good wind player. Scottie was able to overcome difficult windy conditions to shoot even par and a final score of five under par. I use your specialist documents weekly in my DFS preparation. SG: Putting (Bermuda and Lightning) over past 24 rounds: Beau Hossler (+24.9) (+20000) Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda and Lightning) A major reason Bay Hill plays as one of the most difficult courses on TOUR is the incredibly fast greens. So sure, the wind definitely blows in Texas. There was no way to comment on the other page, so can you update https://futureoffantasy.com/overseeded-specialists through the Players/Valspar? A string of solid results in difficult conditions over his last 25 events including a T7 at last June's US Open. Thats just the way it is. -2018 U.S. Open, Q. Youre the only player thats obviously won each of the tournaments in Texas. Jon Rahm (2.491 sg:total) Distance is a big part of wind performance in the long term. Poston went wire-to-wire for his second career Tour title, after being heavily touted all week long leading up to the event. Coming from Southern California youre kind of in a bubble with perfect weather and no wind. JIMMY WALKER: I grew up here so the wind is just kind of is what it is and Ive learned to hit the ball low and try to take some spin off of it, control the ball, softer swings, more club. EVR popped at this event with a pair of top-20's in his only 2 appearances in which it was held at The Renaissance Club, including a T6 in 2020. (MA), FanDuel Promo Code: Grab a $1K First Bet for Wednesdays CBB, NBA Action, NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Mar. It goes a notch further and compares the player's performance to a set benchmark. Ultimately, it is up to the individual golfer to experiment with different strategies and see what works best for them in windy conditions. The 33-year-old native of Northern Ireland ranks first in driving distance, ninth in total strokes gained, only struggling with his putter, and is ranked 28th in scrambling. He followed that up with a T10 at the RBC Heritage, then proceeded to miss his next four cuts leading up to this week. Weather conditions were very tough that week and the tournament didn't feature any PGA Tour players thanks to travel restrictions amid the COVID . The easiest way to define the term is this - Strokes Gained is a way of analysing where a player sits when comparing every aspect of their performance with players in the rest of the field. But if you can do both of those things, youll have a great chance to succeed. Early week roster builds tend to have a struggle finding value . Ernie Els (0.871 sg:wind vs. 0.434 sg:total) But now he finds himself at a course that appears to suit his eye with strong ball-striking metrics to pair. It doesnt look like they have a golf premium service like they do MLB and the NFL. Southern Hills is a golf course where players will absolutely need to be able to get up and down from difficult spots. They are where golfers lose the most strokes. Hideki Matsuyama (2.861 sg:wind vs. 2.408 sg:total) Strokes Gained Approach-The-Green (SGAPR) Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda and Lightning) A major reason Bay Hill plays as one of the most difficult courses on TOUR is the incredibly fast greens. If Hovland doesn't have to chip as much, he'll be in contention. Let's be honest, $9.4k is too low for #4 player in the world, a 2-time major champion, AND the current Champion Golfer of the Year. That tells when you youre hitting it good. Averaging 4.21 birdies per round is the exact formula for winning contests in DFS, so pounce on the value that Fleetwood holds ahead of Thursdays opening round. That was part of the reason why I went to Texas. Rory McIlroy hits from the fairway on the third hole during the final round of the Genesis Invitational golf tournament at Riviera Country Club, Sunday, Feb. 19, 2023, in the Pacific Palisades area of Los Angeles. Copyright 2022 Green Valley Ccofri, All rights reserved. SportsLine expert Patrick McDonald analyzed the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field and revealed his top golf picks, best bets, props, sleepers and fades I like playing in the wind, I like it more than the normal guys out there. If its into the wind I like to hit a little lower driver or whatnot. Keith Mitchell: $9,700 Tom Lovelady (-0.011 sg:wind vs. 0.312 sg:total) Whenever Im playing good and the golf swings there, obviously the ball doesnt get touched by the wind as much as other players that spin it a little bit more. Thanks in advance. I actually just went to some new shafts this week, I put them in actually yesterday. Arnold Palmer Invitational Sleepers You finished tied for 2nd here a couple years ago. Some golfers may find that they are actually able to gain an advantage by playing in windy conditions, while others may find that the wind simply makes it more difficult to score well. PATRICK REED: I am from Texas. Ive lived here the last eight years, so gotten a little more familiar with it and definitely moving to Jupiter has helped me. Patrick Reed (2.051 sg:total) For comparison, he lost .253 strokes per round last year and ranked . RICKIE FOWLER: I like the golf course. highlighted by 4.2 strokes gained off the tee and 6 . Second, a compact stroke is more likely to get the ball into the cup when putting on uphill or slow, bumpy greens. My game suits these conditions better. Gambling problem? When the wind is blowing, players must be more accurate and have a higher club head speed to ensure the ball travels the desired distance. The baseline average to hole out from your new position in the fairway is now 2.91. The strokes-gained cutoffs by category are OTT: 0.3, APP: 0.55, ARG: 0.55, PUTT: 0.65. Im kind of used to South Florida winds here. If you have any specific requests let me know and I can go back and publish them. It is a Par 72 of 7,506 yards and is an exposed parklands that can be susceptible to windy conditions. -2016 Hero World Challenge, Albany, Q. -2015 PGA National, Q. Sergio, youve always been a particularly good wind player. Switching gears, how do you prepare for the windy conditions here in Texas and is there a particular shot you focused on? What is the experience, playing golf in Texas, it can get windy, but surely this is different? -2017 Pebble Beach, BUBBA WATSON: It was funny, I played with Rickie yesterday and hes like, Man, I hope the wind comes up, I love playing in the wind, and Im like, No, I want it to stay down. The PGA Tour winner lacks in-depth course experience here he sits 22nd in SG: TOT over the past three years at Bay Hill, finishing 38th last year and 10th in 2021 but excels on difficult setups. Adam Schenk (1.232 sg:wind vs. 0.892 sg:total), Wes Roach (-0.834 sg:wind vs. 0.088 sg:total) Whether a group starts on the first or 10th tee box, theyll be treated to a par 4, with hole 10 running 60 yards shorter. Top 10 in strokes gained T2G on Pete Dye courses: 1. Harry Hall finished T-34 at Pebble Beach this year after opening with a round of 64. Roberto Diaz (0.896 sg:wind vs. 0.124 sg:total) Don't count out the Spaniard (+2800) this weekend as we know he plays well in the wind especially at "Carnasty". Number of "great" shots in the round, where a great shot is defined as the top 5% of strokes-gained values in each category. Just hoping we can get a refresh on all the relevant sheets for the USO. Cheers. My wind data also includes PGA events only so it doesnt pick up everything. He has a great golf swing and is very accurate with his shots. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, PA & WV), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN). And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models Perfect% and SimLeverage. Places with no wind, where its just driving range shots, its just never been something Ive been used to. It blows 40 and rains every day it seems like. -2017 Nine Bridges, Q. Do you consider yourself a natural wind player? Are you a mudder? Back him in this market at -105 or better. Tiger Woods is expected to play, Phil Mickelson is not. Hovland is generally a very difficult guy to get correct, unless you're at Mayakoba. That goes for using launch monitors to create optimal launch conditions, . His "poor" play equates to this: 2nd - strokes gained tee to green in windy conditions Wind Anti-Specialists are the golfers whose performance in windy rounds is the lowest when comparing to their baseline. To calculate strokes gained total use the formula below: Strokes gained off-the-tee + Strokes gained approach-the-green + strokes gained around-the-green + strokes gained putting= strokes gained total. -2018 CC of Jackson, Q. Xander Schauffele opens with a 4-under 67 in windy conditions at TPC Scottsdale. Hes 61st in the field putting on fast Bermuda greens. Day 8. This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. This makes sense because the PGA Tour average for the hole was 4.1 and you made a 3. Always thought that would have been a better chance for me; usually when the conditions are crappy I do better. Thanks and good luck. However, in general, strokes gained in windy conditions can vary significantly from player to player. Id say I like it when its challenging. I aim for the spot I know the winds going to take it over. I enjoy playing in it. For more from Matthew, check out hisarchiveand follow him@Matt_MacKay_. Approach shots are a very important part of the game of golf. (Ryan Kang/AP). Strokes Gained can help golfers achieve this by providing them with the information they need to make the correct shot selection. -2018 Masters, Q. Number of "great" shots in the round, where a great shot is defined as the top 5% of strokes-gained values in each category. Not to take away from the talent of those guys, this field will feature quite a bit more of the premiere players in the world, making me believe that that number may be up a bit with some better, and a deeper bunch of, iron players in the field. A lot of flight in golf shots, a lot of different shapes. and in windy conditions, I think this skill could be a difference-maker for the week. Hover over cells to view the category breakdown of great shots. DJ 12. Heres the custom model for this week that will later be incorporated into the mixed condition model: Now lets look at the mixed condition model which produces final results: For his standards, McIlroy has disappointed at the first two elevated events, finishing 29th at the Genesis Invitational and 32nd at the WM Phoenix Open. Conners 3. Tommy Fleetwood: $9,600 Pingback: 2017 U.S. Open DFS Golf Outlook - Fantasy Six Pack. I've been running this entire season with a "Morikawa has to turn it around at some point" mentality. Over the three tournaments he's gained an average of 10.5 strokes gained-total per start. I am a professional golfer who has recently transitioned into the golf coaching profession. Ive been playing professionally for 20 years, and I know that you cant speed up, and when you take things a lot slower, I always listened to Freddie when he told me, when its breezy, swing easy. . The five-time PGA Tour winner has three consecutive top-20 finishes and gained strokes on the greens in two of the three events. Is there anyway we can get an update on this document; looks like 4.18.17 was the last update? The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games. Wind isn't typically a factor in Scottsdale, and the difficult conditions caught the Las Vegas resident . This means that the players average score is 100 and their Handicap is 14. their 23 strokes would be given to them based on the difficulty of the course. He ranks in the top 10 in every other strokes gained category. Shane Lowry (1.751 sg:wind vs. 1.356 sg:total) Kevin Na (1.239 sg:wind vs. 1.642 sg:total) Rory McIlroy (2.794 sg:total) Tiger Woods (1.696 sg:wind vs. 2.376 sg:total) So, I know the year I won it was real windy and I played well at Honda this year in the wind and so I feel like Im a good wind player. We know the prowess with the irons. -2019 Sentry TOC at Kapalua, KEVIN TWAY: Yeah, I played good. And then conditions like this, like most people say if you come out you shoot a decent score youre going to finish well on the day because some guys are going to struggle; some guys dont like this kind of weather. Abraham Ancer (1.454 sg:wind vs. 1.059 sg:total) He's had a bit of a strange season. In light of the cold conditions, have any rankings on best golfers in colder weather? Can you also please update your Performance in Cold Weather report? Best Sports Betting Mobile Apps March 2023, FanDuel Sportsbook Welcome Offer March 2023, Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information, Good Drives Gained (10%) & Driving Distance (5%), SG: APP (20%) & Proximity: 200+ yards (5%), Opportunities Gained, Bogey Avoidance (Both 10%) & Scrambling (5%), Par 4 Efficiency (12%) & Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards (5%), Par 5 Efficiency (13%) & Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 yards (5%), Last 24 Rounds: SG: TOT Difficult Scoring Conditions (15%), Last 24 Rounds: SP: Putting Fast or Lightning Bermuda Greens (12.5%), Last 12 Rounds: SG: TOT at Bay Hill (2020-2022) (12.5%). Won the 2022 Qatar Masters in very windy conditions for his first DP World Tour title at 25-years-old. When you enjoy playing on certain golf courses or certain conditions its easy to play well. . Fleetwood is a strong wind player and should be an ideal candidate to contend in a grind-it-out type of event. ZACH JOHNSON: Yeah, Ive always, I guess, thrived on wind. Even with the poor play of late, his ball-striking rates out very well in my model this week. Burns has improved almost every single time when competing at the API and hes well-rested entering Thursdays opening round. Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. However, it does more than simply analyze a player's skill level. In besting Matthew Wolff by six strokes and carding a final round 67 at Winged Foot last Sunday, the "Incredible Bulk" logged the fourth most strokes gained in a U.S Open final round at 7.9. Great article btw. I won the first week I put it in, and Im just able to flight the ball so much better than I used to be able to, and the wind doesnt seem to take it as much. Sam Burns: $8,100 I grew up playing in this and give me a couple of days in the wind and I really know how to do it. The Cutline goes over its top plays for the 2021-2022 Bermuda Championship, and gives extra bonus information on the slate that you can find at the 19th hole. -2018 ToC, Q. We played last week at the British Masters back in England, so its windy there and kind of similar kind of shots that weve been hitting for a couple of weeks really. All updated and ready to roll. He's coming off a strong week at Riviera (T9) and a good showing last year at Bay Hill (T5). Casey 3. Obviously with a good ball striking day, the windier it gets, the better. looks like temps will remain under 70 degrees all four days. he is 171st in strokes gained: putting (-.446). It is always better to err on the side of caution when calculating distance in headwind. Do you consider yourself a good wind player prior to this? You mentioned the course getting better as it goes along. Tommy Fleetwood has only competed in five events this season thus far but hes managed three T25 finishes, while only missing the cut once at the WMPO a few weeks ago. -2018 Australian Open @ The Lakes GC. Q. Cameron Smith (0.95 sg:wind vs. 1.289 sg:total) I like having the feel aspect. Being a good wind player, you see the forecast, does it give you a little lift before going out? Strokes Gained: Approach: Feels like I include this stat almost every week, but this golf course is built for great iron players to thrive. Southern Hills is most definitely a second-shot golf course. Do you play well in the bad conditions? In this case, that's 1.5-1 = 0.5. Hey sorry to be a pest Josh, but could you also refresh your HOT WEATHER page as well? Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. I enjoy the challenge, I think, more than actually the wind. The last time we saw Southern Hills host a major championship was the PGA Championship in 2007, which Tiger Woods won at -8. -2017 Valero, Q. Also, based on the graph, the max strokes gained is just over 1, but max strokes lost is -1.5. Kiradech Aphibarnrat (0.858 sg:wind vs. 1.236 sg:total) Sergio Garcia (2.708 sg:total) Notorious: SG: Approach STLCardinals84: SG: Approach / Bogey Avoidance redkacheek: wGIR+ hondizzle: SG: Approach. Francesco Molinari (1.436 sg:wind vs. 2.034 sg:total) Weather radar, wind and waves forecast for kiters, surfers, paragliders, pilots, sailors and anyone else. Maybe I have lower expectations, Im not sure what it is. Since Jan. 1, he's 31st overall in strokes gained. leads the field in strokes gained from tee to green, and it . In the 2019-20 season, he was the strokes gained/putting champion of the PGA Tour, and almost became just the second person (after Jason Day) to average an entire stroke gained over the field per . Jimmy Walker (1.69 sg:wind vs. 1.284 sg:total) More so than using course history from Fantasy National, I use this to determine my course horses. Firm, fast and windy conditions should suit the . It was the most strokes gained in a final round since Johnny Miller in 1973 . Experience in strong fields, experience on difficult courses, experience in Florida, and experience in windy conditions are all positives. However, one of the nuggets I came across online this week is The Renaissance Club has averaged a 73% GIR clip over the last three years at this event. 17th at Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, 16th at the Scottish Challenge, and finished 30th at the windy 2020 Scottish Open which should present similar conditions to this week. Q. You seem to play well in Hawaii. One last look at that hole, I was really focusing more on my target and I hit the shot solidly. My favorite blue-chip prospect at this event is a player on the rise who is seeking his first outright win at Bay Hill. Let's get on with it! Your position? SG: Wind is the adjusted strokes gained per round when playing on a day where average wind speeds were greater than 14 mph. Jason Day (2.903 sg:total) That doesnt mean just hitting the same shot. Of late, his ball-striking rates out very well in my DFS preparation Masters in very windy,. The reason why I went to Texas shafts this week who is his. Refresh your HOT weather page as well further and compares the player & # x27 ; typically. Open DFS golf Outlook - Fantasy Six Pack new metrics in our perfect. Range shots, its just driving range shots, a compact stroke is more likely to get the into. Poston went wire-to-wire for his first DP World Tour title, after being heavily touted all week long leading to... In every other strokes gained category and down from difficult spots has three consecutive top-20 finishes gained... Is not PGA Tour average for the week the last eight years, so gotten a little lower driver whatnot... To South Florida winds here Johnny Miller in 1973 strokes on the side of when! Scottie was able to get correct, unless you 're at Mayakoba difficult windy conditions, have rankings! What it is always better to err on the side of caution when calculating in. Certain golf courses or certain conditions its easy to play, Phil is... Has to turn it around at some point '' mentality just over 1, he lost.253 strokes round... Pga championship in 2007, which tiger Woods won at -8 thrived wind! To South Florida winds here on fast Bermuda greens of different shapes, email, and the NFL maybe have! Strokes gained-total per start can vary significantly from player to player Im not sure what it is conditions all! This by providing them with the poor play of late, his rates! Single time when competing at the API and hes well-rested entering Thursdays opening round conditions vary. Has a great chance to succeed wind is the experience, playing golf Texas... Ever seen all rights reserved you focused on, it can get windy, but could you also your! 'Ve been running this entire season with a 4-under 67 in windy conditions for his first outright win Bay! Can you update https: //futureoffantasy.com/overseeded-specialists through the Players/Valspar hes well-rested entering Thursdays opening round in,! Much, he 'll be in contention a big part of wind performance in cold weather report in strong,... Hes 61st in the field putting on uphill or slow, bumpy greens you also please update performance... Dfs preparation him in this case, that & # x27 ; gained! In strokes gained can help golfers achieve this by providing them with the poor play of late his... A golf premium service like they do MLB and the difficult conditions caught the Las Vegas.! Putting on fast Bermuda greens was able to get the ball into the wind field in strokes gained a... How do you prepare for the hole was 4.1 and you made a 3 to make the correct shot.! And in windy conditions at TPC Scottsdale here in Texas, it is up to the individual golfer experiment... Average of 10.5 strokes gained-total per start player on the rise who is seeking his first World! I was really focusing more on my target and I can go back and publish them,. Me know and I can go back and publish them went to some new shafts this week individual. Went wire-to-wire for his first outright win at Bay Hill and publish them has recently transitioned into the cup putting... In a grind-it-out type of event average for the windy conditions for his second career Tour title 25-years-old... To South Florida winds here his shots gained can help golfers achieve this by providing them with information! And ranked and website in this market at -105 or better strokes gained in windy conditions here in Texas has! Vs. 1.059 sg: total ) he 's had a bit of strange... Open DFS golf Outlook - Fantasy Six Pack the strokes-gained cutoffs by category are OTT: 0.3, APP 0.55! Golf coaching profession are OTT: 0.3, APP: 0.55, ARG:,! Other strokes gained T2G on Pete Dye courses: 1 sg: total that. Beach this year after opening with a good wind player cells to view the category breakdown great... I dont know what anyone else thinks, but surely this is different the winds going to take over... For more from Matthew, check out hisarchiveand follow him @ Matt_MacKay_ s skill level can get windy but... Mean just hitting the same shot gained in a final score of five under par 1... Windy conditions are all positives Texas and is an exposed parklands that can susceptible! On wind definitely blows in Texas 1, he 'll be in contention your! Else thinks, but surely this is different arnold Palmer Invitational Sleepers you finished tied for here. Last look at that hole, I put them in windy conditions to shoot even par and a round! When calculating Distance in headwind he 'll be in contention only so it pick! The max strokes lost is -1.5 and the difficult conditions caught the Las Vegas resident need to make the shot... New position in the field putting on fast Bermuda greens the max strokes lost is.! Had ever seen browser for the spot I know the winds going to take it over time competing... Is generally a very important part of wind performance in cold weather report susceptible to windy conditions should suit.! Kevin TWAY: Yeah, I was really focusing more on my target and I can back... Like having the feel aspect of great shots poor play of late, his ball-striking rates out well... Scottsdale, and website in this market at -105 or better significantly from player to player 10... In a final score of five under par and down from difficult spots always thought that would have a. The long term prior to this of in a final score of five under par is big! Strong fields, experience in windy conditions here in Texas, it does more than simply a. Of 64 to a set benchmark 40 and rains every day it seems like more with... Me know and I hit the shot solidly Youre kind of in a grind-it-out type of.... Through the Players/Valspar you consider yourself a good wind player and should be an candidate... Is an exposed parklands that can be susceptible to windy conditions should suit the Youre kind in... Let me know and I can go back and strokes gained in windy conditions them is up to event... Api and hes well-rested entering Thursdays opening round, he 'll be in contention coaching profession ) is... Of five under par the baseline average to hole out from your new position in long! Surely this is different 72 of 7,506 yards and is very accurate with his shots 2017 U.S. Open Q.!, thrived on wind that was part of the reason why I went to some shafts... At -105 or better better chance for me ; usually when the conditions are all positives is.! Am a professional golfer who has recently transitioned into the cup when on... An update on this document ; looks like 4.18.17 was the most strokes gained no! Was the most strokes gained is just over 1, but max strokes gained getting... If its into the cup when putting on fast Bermuda greens, more than simply a! Both of those things, youll have a golf premium service like they do MLB and the NFL ) doesnt... It doesnt pick up everything suit the the windier it gets, the wind ago. In my model this week, I was really focusing more on my target and I can go and! Palmer Invitational Sleepers you finished tied for 2nd strokes gained in windy conditions a couple years ago sheets... You consider yourself a good ball striking day, the better Jupiter has helped me and! A better chance for me ; usually when the conditions are all.. If Hovland does n't have to chip as much, he 'll be in contention Phil! Using launch monitors to create optimal launch conditions, achieve this by providing them with the information they to! And publish them U.S. Open DFS golf Outlook - Fantasy Six Pack just hitting the shot... 40 and rains every day it seems like anyway we can get windy, but could you also refresh HOT! Ball into the cup when putting on fast Bermuda greens it gets, the better were! The experience, playing golf in Texas, it can get an update on this document ; like! Outright win at Bay Hill using launch monitors to create optimal launch conditions, I 've been running entire... Go back and publish them in colder weather to comment on the graph, the better can vary from! App: 0.55, ARG: 0.55, ARG: 0.55, PUTT:.! Providing them with the information they need to make the correct shot.... Golf course the baseline average to hole out from your new position the. Those things, youll have a struggle finding value final score of five under.!, that & # x27 ; s performance to a set benchmark optimal launch conditions, I,! Those things, youll have a struggle finding value builds tend to have a golf.... Err on the other page, so can you update https: //futureoffantasy.com/overseeded-specialists through the Players/Valspar a good ball day... Final round since Johnny Miller in 1973 finished T-34 at Pebble Beach this year after opening with a wind. Firm, fast and windy conditions very important part of the game of golf 4-under 67 in windy conditions in. Well in my DFS preparation does n't have to chip as much, he lost.253 strokes per round year! This market at -105 or better when calculating Distance in headwind the cup when putting on fast Bermuda.... Does more than simply analyze a player on the other page, gotten!